Background
Ever since the United States unilaterally left the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, tensions between the two countries have been simmering, with them coming close to a war on many instances. The Trump administration took a hard stance, placing more sanctions (including those on Iranian banks), assassinating Soleimani etc. while the Biden administration promised to return to the original deal as soon as possible but that is proving to be difficult.
Israel’s new independent stance
Israeli defense minister Benny Gantz on 6 March 2021 said that Israel is updating its plans to strike Iran, is ready to act independently and already has identified targets that “would hurt its ability to develop a nuclear bomb.” In an interview with Fox News, he said that “the Iranian nuclear aspiration must be stalled.” His statements come after there were intelligence reports that Iran will likely target Israel using proxies in Syria and Lebanon in 2021. Time will tell how Israel proceeds with its new plans and what affect they have on US-Israel relationship and the US-Iran nuclear deal talks.
Status of the US-Iran talks
Five days ago, the Iranian Foreign Ministry rejected the prospect of any talks stating that “Washington was not doing enough to lift the sanctions” and the US said that it would not move forward with the talks until Iran took further steps to come back into compliance with the deal. Recent US bombing of facilities in Syria backed by Pro-Iran militias also complicated things. However, the recent developments between Iran and the IAEA and Europe’s decision to hold the censure motion against Iran and give diplomacy a chance, meaning that there is a chance that we can see US and Iran start informal talks shortly. In another instance, Iran’s foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif refuted Mohsen Rezaei’s (secretary of Iran’s Expediency Council) claims that Iran would return to nuclear talks if US lifts sanctions within a year and tweeted that “Iranian polity is vibrant & officials express diverse opinions” and that he would “shortly present our constructive concrete plan of action—through proper diplomatic channels”
Mixed signals by Iran are making it difficult for everyone to take the diplomatic route and increasing the chances of a strike by Israel every day.
Readers should further look out for any developments that take place between IAEA, Iran and Europe because they are crucial for the future of any US and Iranian talks.
Mehnoor Singh – freelance journalist covering conflict in Russia, CIS and Middle East. You can follow him on Twitter @mehnoorsingh_
