Background
On Saturday, June 19th, Iran’s Interior Minister announced that ultraconservative Ebrahim Raisi won the presidential election in a landslide victory, receiving nearly 62% of the vote. Mr. Raisi won with about 18 million out of the almost 29 million votes cast.
Raisi is the son-in-law of Ahmad Alamolhoda, the Mashhad Friday prayer leader and Grand Imam of Imam Reza shrine. He is a member of the Assembly of Experts (the body which appoints the Supreme Leader) from South Khorasan Province. While on the campaign trail, Raisi was closely associated with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and by extension with the 1979 Islamic Revolution that brought the current clerical leaders to power. These factors combined give the already-conservative Raisi a religious boost among his constituents. As for his history, Raisi has served in Iran’s judicial system in several positions, including Deputy Chief Justice from 2004 to 2014, Attorney General from 2014 to 2016, and as Chief Justice from 2019 to now. As Deputy Prosecutor and then as Prosecutor of Tehran in the 1980s and 1990s, Raisi oversaw the execution of thousands of political dissidents. The killings have been described as “a political purge without precedent in modern Iranian history, both in terms of scope and coverup.” Amnesty International puts the death toll in the thousands. Then-Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini’s deputy, Hussein-Ali Montazeri, put the number between 2,800 and 3,800 in his memoirs. However, an alternative estimation suggests that the number exceeded 30,000. As one of four people on the prosecution committee, Raisi played a key role in the 1988 mass executions which led to him and his comrades being labeled the “death committee.” For this, and because he is accused of crimes against humanity by international human rights organizations and by United Nations rapporteurs, Raisi is sanctioned by both the United States and the European Union.
Future of Iranian Leadership
Raisi, Iran’s hardline judiciary chief, is seen by many as the Supreme Leader’s possible successor. His victory marks the ousting of the more moderate Hassan Rouhani, whose administration negotiated the first nuclear deal with the United States. It is unlikely that his election represents a rising conservative wave, however. The election had the lowest turnout of any presidential election in the nation’s history. Of the country’s 59 million eligible voters, only 49% actually voted, significantly lower than the 73% that voted in 2017. While Iranian state television blamed coronavirus-related challenges and sanctions by the United States for the low participation rate, the likely culprit were the massive calls to boycott the election. Furthermore, of the cast ballots, 3.7 million were either accidentally or intentionally voided by their casters, a number far higher than seen in previous years (elections in 2012 and 2017 saw no more than 1.2 million voided ballots each). The low voter turnout and high voided ballot count suggests a wider discontent with Iran’s tightly controlled elections. In the eye’s of these voters and non-voters, the election was predetermined; Ebrahim Raisi was set to win from the start. This sentiment was echoed by many during the run-up to the election. Reformist candidate Mohsen Mehralizadeh, one of the seven candidates approved by the Guardian Council. Mehralizadeh hinted that the vote was predetermined, saying during a TV debate that the ruling clerics had aligned “sun, moon, and the heavens to make one particular person the president.” Former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (who was barred from running) said that he would not vote, saying that he does “not want to have a part in this sin.”
Iranian activists certainly let their grievances be heard. A social media hashtag urging a boycott of the election received tens of thousands of impressions during its first day alone. They also criticized the candidate pool. Of the over 600 applicants who registered to run, all but seven of whom were rejected by the Guardian Council. Three withdrew after getting approval, leaving just a handful of candidates, none of whom were seen as a real threat to Raisi.
The Council is a 12-member body that wields great influence in Iran. Among other duties, it either accepts or rejects potential candidates after looking into their education, commitment to Islam, and knowledge of the Constitution. Half of the Council is appointed by the Supreme Leader, and the other half is nominated by the head of the judiciary (who is appointed by the Supreme Leader) and subject to confirmation by members of parliament. These members can likewise only run with the approval of the Guardian Council. In this way, the Supreme Leader is indeed “supreme,” and every aspect of Iranian politics and governance is subject to the Supreme Leader. Activists also point to the fact that Iran does not allow international observers to monitor its elections to further support their claim. Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has logged 42 cases of journalists receiving summonses from the prosecutor’s office or threats from intelligence ministry officials for their reporting on the election or on its candidates. The prohibitions issued to journalists range from “negative or critical comments about the election” to outright “criticising Ebrahim Raisi.” A statement published by RSF on June 11th said that the “message of these bans could not be clearer.”
One thing is clear: even by Iranian standards, this election was not a fair one. Also Raisi’s vice-president is yet to be announced.
Henry Smith – Student researcher with a focus on middle eastern affairs
