Background
Afghanistan has seen a surge in violence over the past few months as Taliban and Afghan forces fight for control of the country. The two-decade long conflict has escalated on the back of the Taliban’s resurgence, and the Afghan government is undoubtedly on its back foot since the United States’ withdrawal.
In the beginning of April — the start of American troop withdrawal from Afghanistan — the Afghan government controlled 31% of the country’s districts and the Taliban controlled less than 20%, with approximately 48% contested. As of July 18th, the Afghan government controlled less than 18% of the country’s districts while the Taliban controlled almost 55%, with approximately 27% being contested.
Key Border Regions
Some key areas have already fallen to the Taliban. The insurgents have seized control of districts bordering five countries — Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, China, and Pakistan. Among these is the border town of Islam Qala. This town, which serves as a major transit route between Afghanistan and Iran, fell to the Taliban on the 8th of July. But apart from being a regional trade hub, Islam Qala is also only 120 kilometers (75 miles) from the provincial capital of Herat, Afghanistan’s third largest city. Those in the city are wary of the Taliban. Herat’s civil war era warlord Ismail Khan called up his supporters, positioning them throughout the city. He declared that if the Taliban advance is not stopped, the group will never sit down for serious negotiations.
Another major city in the Taliban’s sights is Kandahar, Afghanistan’s second largest city. For several weeks, the Taliban have been capturing surrounding districts while they slowly encroach upon the city. Fighting along the city’s outskirts has caused a curfew to be put in place, and the military security council of Kandahar has recommended that residents staying in other parts of the country should not return until further notice. Afghan airstrikes and special forces have so far kept the Taliban at bay, but it is unclear how long this will last. Numbering only 11,000, Afghan special forces — trained by the United States and better equipped than regular units — are spread thin. Furthermore, without U.S. or NATO airstrikes to assist, the Afghan air force struggles to hold back the Taliban.
The Taliban clearly have the upper hand in this situation, and although American President Joe Biden claimed that the “Afghan military could hold [the] Taliban,” he also admitted that it is “highly unlikely” one government will control Afghanistan after the foreign troop pullout. However, a report by the U.S. Intelligence Community details an even less friendly outcome, stating that the Afghan government is likely to collapse within six months of NATO completing its withdrawal from the country. This prediction is echoed in the actions of the Taliban. A militant movement insecure about its future would be watching its every step and doing everything possible to craft a good image for itself. But the Taliban does not seem to be taking this path, and the execution of 22 surrendering Afghan commandos by Taliban soldiers shows that the Taliban feels it is in control of the situation.
The US Worries Over Afghanistan
Within the days following Joe Biden’s reaffirmation of American troop withdrawal, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley testified to the Senate Appropriations Committee that the likelihood of regeneration of al-Qaeda or the Islamic State group in Afghanistan is “medium,” but would increase if the Afghan government collapses. They also agreed that it could take as little as two years for such a group to pose a threat to the U.S. homeland. If this is the case it begs the question, what action would the United States take if it came under threat? Would another intervention be on the table? While the latter is unlikely to be true, the U.S. might find itself forced to react to development in Afghanistan sooner than it would like. In any case, the ball will soon be in the Taliban’s court, and it seems there isn’t much anyone will do to stop it.
Henry Smith – Student researcher with a focus on middle eastern affairs
