Background
When three rockets were fired from south Lebanon towards Israel on May 13th, many assumed the Iran-backed militia, Hezbollah, was behind the attack and that a new front was opening as a result of the Gaza-Israel conflict. Shortly after the rockets were fired, information was revealed that a Palestinian faction was behind the attacks and that Lebanese authorities arrested those responsible for the launch. This allowed room for relief in Lebanon as the incident did not signals potential conflict opening up on Israel’s northern border. Many things ruled out the possibility of the powerful Iran-backed Shia militia being behind the attack, Including the apparent unskillfulness of those who launched the rockets, which ended up landing in the sea, as well Hezbollah intentions not to escalate the southern border at the moment. Hezbollah denied involvement after the attack; however, the incident raises questions about Hezbollah and the Lebanese state’s ability to control Palestinian factions and small militias willing to attack independently. On may 17, six rockets were again fired towards Israel by a Palestinian group but failed to cross the border and landed inside Lebanon. This escalated tensions between the two countries, and the Israeli military responded by shelling parts of south Lebanon. The most serious incident occurred when a Lebanese civilian, later to be identified as a Hezbollah fighter, was killed on the Israeli border after protesting in support of Palestine. Many assumed that Hezbollah would respond with fiery rhetoric and threats towards Israel; however, the militia’s quiet response to the killing at the time was indicative of its intentions not to start a conflict with Irael.
Hezbollah’s Reaction
Hezbollah, instead, decided to intensely observe the conflict between Gaza and Israel and prepare for a possible outbreak of violence with the Israelis in the future. It is plausible that Hezbollah would be most focused on Israel’s ability to repel rocket attacks from Hamas in Gaza. Hamas was able to launch thousands of rockets towards Israel and has even launched hundreds of rockets in just a few minutes. The goal of launching a barrage of rocket attacks is to overwhelm Israel’s Iron dome system, which is 80-90percent effective in repelling incoming strikes. Despite Israel’s success in stopping most missiles from landing inside the Jewish state, Hamas has succeeded in being able to launch rockets all the way to Tel Aviv, which shows that the Palestinian militia has been able to acquire longer range and more advanced missiles, likely with the help of other supportive countries. This is especially important for Hezbollah since the party has a strong focus on missile development and boasts about being able to “hit any target inside of Israel.” It is widely accepted that Hezbollah has some of the most advanced missiles that come from Iran through Syria and even has rockets that are long-range and non-interceptable. Hezbollah is believed to be equipped with over 150,000 advanced missiles throughout Lebanese territory. In the event of a war, the militia also aims to overwhelm Israel’s defense system by launching thousands of rockets throughout Israel daily. A few days after a cease-fire was reached between Gaza and Israel, Hezbollah broke its silence when its leader Hassan Nasrallah made a televised speech. Although Nasrallah had coughed throughout the address and even admitted he wasn’t in the best of health, he issued a warning to Israel that any violation of the Al-Aqsa mosque would result in a regional war. The speech seems like an attempt by Hezbollah and the so-called “axis of resistance” to create a new equation where other militia groups in the region would fight if further violence between Hamas and Israel breaks out. As Lebanon goes through a political and economic crisis, the last thing the Lebanese need is another conflict with Israel, and although Hezbollah does not want to escalate tensions at the moment, the fear of conflict always looms in Lebanon. It is essential to monitor the cease-fire between Hamas and Israel closely and if it will be able to hold despite the fragile environment. In the time being, Hezbollah is likely more focused on political issues within Lebanon and Iran’s attempt to restore the Nuclear deal than starting a conflict with Israel. However, simply not having the intention to enter into a conflict does not rule out the possibility of a miscalculation.
Teymour Nsouli – has written extensively on Middle Eastern affairs and has had many articles published on a variety of platforms.
