Background
The North African country’s path remains unclear as Saied assumes absolute power and clashes between supporters and opponents erupt on the streets.
On July 25th, Tunisian President Kais Saied sacked PM Hichem Mechichi, suspended parliament for 30 days, and removed the country’s ministers of justice and defense. In a televised address, Saied said that these actions are meant to save social peace and the state. He also warned against any opposition, saying “the armed forces will respond with bullets.”
Economic turmoil
Saied’s actions follow general unrest over the nation’s economic and social turmoil, all of which have been exacerbated by the government’s mishandling of the pandemic. Protests have engulfed the country since January when Tunisian cities erupted in response to accusations of police violence. A recent spike in Covid cases proved to be the final push. Saied then declared he was taking over and citizens took to the streets, some in support, others in opposition.
To fully understand the situation, where Tunisians stand on the issue, and where Tunisia’s future lies, one must look to the history of modern Tunisia.
To many, what is taking place in Tunisia looks to be a full blown coup. Along with parliament’s suspension and the dismissal of powerful figures in the government, Tunisia now has a 7pm to 6am curfew and a ban on public gatherings of more than three people. Press freedoms are also being called into question after Al Jazeera’s office in Tunis was raided and security forces forced its journalists to leave. Rached Ghannouchi, speaker of the now-suspended parliament and longtime head of the moderate Islamist Ennahdha party (Tunisia’s most powerful party post-Arab Spring), certainly thinks it is a coup. President Saied disagrees, citing Article 80 of the constitution, which gives the president the power to do exactly what he did and temporarily rule by decree in the event of “imminent danger threatening the integrity of the country and the country’s security and independence.” Any difference of opinion as to whether Tunisia’s current situation (faltering economy, parliamentary drift, and crushing new Covid wave) amounts to imminent danger is unlikely to be resolved, however. Tunisia’s legal and political framework is unclear, and although the current Constitution of 2014 calls for a Constitutional Court to rule on issues like this, it has yet to be established.
International Concern
To outside observers, this was never supposed to happen. Since 2011, international media has framed Tunisia as the lone success story of the Arab Spring. From that point onward, Tunisian political development was seen as linear and progressive: first came protests, then elections, and then a constitution; Tunisia became the only “genuine democracy” of the Arab Spring. In light of this, it is easy to understand how onlookers may conclude that Tunisian politics are regressing, or that a healthy democracy has just been put to death. But these views are ignorant of the country’s past, and they hinge on the incorrect belief that Tunisian politics have never before backslid.
Tunisia has been on the brink multiple times since 2011. In 2013, a months-long political deadlock that came after the assassination of a political leader pushed the country to the edge. In 2015, newly elected President Beji Caid Essebi of a secularist party and aforementioned Speaker Rached Ghannouchi of an Islamist party was prevented from imposing their will on each other merely because neither had the numbers in parliament. While notable that Tunisia did not descend into violence in 2013 and that a working coalition was formed in 2015, and that there was a peaceful transfer of power after Essebi died in 2019, these were not necessarily indications that Tunisia was still on its linear path of progress. Indeed, hailing them as such ignores the warning signs that serious analysts saw in Tunisian society for years: from economic hardship to questions about identity to corruption in parliament and its failure to live up to the promises of the 2011 Revolution.
Coup or not, it is unclear as to whether the majority of Tunisians actually oppose President Saied’s actions. Tunisians have shown discontent with the government and its major parties since before Saied’s time in office. This very dissatisfaction is what propelled Saied, a political outsider, to the presidency. A major corruption scandal in 2020 and the continued struggle of the government to deal with the crisis and the urgent need for reform furthered this sentiment. In the days since Saied’s takeover, both those who oppose and those who support his actions have taken to the streets. Yet the latter have been joined by another group, the many Tunisians who are indifferent about democracy and who, missing the Arab Spring-era promises of security, education, and opportunity, seem to want a state that can deliver jobs and provide a social safety net regardless of the system.
What’s Next?
It is unclear what path Tunisia is on at the moment. On the one hand, Saied’s seizure of power could truly be a temporary measure meant to help the country get back on track. Through this lens, Saied’s actions, such as the lifting of parliamentary immunity, could be for legitimate reasons, such as cracking down on corruption. With a total of nine different governments since 2011 (many short-lived or fractured), unemployment rates above 15% even in the years before the pandemic, and an unprecedented flare up in Covid cases, a do-it-by-any-means government could be what Tunisia needs.
On the other hand, Saied’s seizure of power could be fueled by self-interest and come at the expense of his nation. Through this lens, the extent of power Saied now wields is frightening. With no Constitutional Court, there is no one to rule on the legality of Saied’s actions. There is nothing to limit the power or scope of his decrees, nothing to prevent Saied from going after his opponents in parliament now that he has lifted their immunity and declared himself attorney general, nothing to challenge his attacks on the press, and nothing (hypothetically) to prevent him from extending the suspension of parliament — even indefinitely.
What happens during the next few weeks will decide Tunisia’s future. If Saied voluntarily gives up his power when he says he will, Tunisian democracy could live on. No doubt such a contested but absolute seizure of power would prompt robust political reform aimed at preventing another constitutional crisis. Saied’s actions might even reinvigorate within Tunisians the democratic sentiments that led to the 2011 Revolution. However, if Saied successfully clings to his power past the deadline he has set, it is very likely that Tunisian democracy would die. In either case, Tunisia’s fate rests more so in the hands of President Saied than those of his own people. With his grip on the armed forces remaining firm and a decree preventing large public gatherings in effect, he has not given Tunisians much room to voice opposition or much of anything for that matter.
Your move, Mr. President.
Henry Smith – Student researcher with a focus on middle eastern affairs
